pokerlife|太极集团(600129)：高基数下短期承压 看好全年稳步恢复

Institution: Citic Construction Investment (601066) Securities

Researcher: he Juying / Liu Ruofei / Yuan Quan

Core viewpoints

The company achieved revenue of 42% from Q1 in 24 years.Pokerlife.800 million yuan, down-4.96% from the same period last year; net profit from home was 247 million yuan, up 5.05% from the same period last year; and net profit from non-return was 218 million yuan, down 8.47% from the same period last year. Judging from the performance of Q1, we believe that the growth rate of the company's core varieties slowed down under the high base in the same period last year, superimposed a drag on some chemical products and commercial plates, resulting in short-term pressure on the company's performance, and other varieties of traditional Chinese medicine are expected to achieve steady growth, and the overall performance is in line with our previous expectations. Looking forward to the whole year, as the company's industrial sector strengthens category development and channel construction, the profitability of the commercial sector is further improved, the superimposed company develops the industrialization of traditional Chinese medicine resources, actively develops the second growth curve, and is optimistic about the long-term growth space.

Event

The company releases its first quarterly report in 2024

On the evening of April 25, the company released a report for the first quarter of 2024, which showed that the total operating income was 4.208 billion yuan, down-4.96% from the same period last year; the net profit from home was 247 million yuan, up 5.05% from the same period last year; the net profit from non-return was 218 million yuan, down 8.47% from the same period last year; earnings per share were 0.44 yuan, and the performance was in line with our previous expectations.

Brief comment

Under the pressure of the core category with a high base, Q1 performance was in line with previous expectations of 24-year Q1, and the company achieved revenue of 4.208 billion yuan, down 4.96% from the same period last year. The net profit of deducting non-homing is 218 million yuan, down 8.47% from the same period last year, and the growth rate of the main business has slowed down, mainly because: the growth rate of ① core product Huoxiang Zhengqi oral liquid slowed down under the high base in the same period last year, the sales of ② chemical products were affected by caliber adjustment and external environment, and the commercial plate of ③ continued to bear pressure. The net profit of returning to the mother was 64 million yuan, an increase of 5.05% over the same period last year. The increase in apparent profit was mainly due to an increase in government subsidies over the same period last year. Judging from the performance of Q1, we believe that the growth rate of the company's core varieties slowed down under the high base in the same period last year, superimposed a drag on some chemical products and commercial plates, resulting in short-term pressure on the company's performance, and other varieties of traditional Chinese medicine are expected to achieve steady growth, and the overall performance is in line with our previous expectations.

Industrial plate core products under pressure, large health plate year-on-year rapid growth in 24 years Q1 sub-plate: ① pharmaceutical industry: business income 2.693 billion yuan, down 15.62%, gross profit margin 64.90%, 0.27% lower than the same period last year; among them, modern Chinese medicine is expected to achieve steady growth, and the chemical sector is expected to decline under external environmental pressure. In terms of categories, the company's digestive system (represented by Huoxiang Zhengqi oral liquid), respiratory system (represented by Jizhi syrup), anti-infection (represented by Yibao Shiling), and the three core categories achieved income of 682 million yuan, 1.005 billion yuan and 397 million yuan, respectively year-on-year growth of-28.04%, 6.10%,-29.63%. From the perspective of large varieties, Huoxiang Zhengqi oral liquid is expected to bear pressure at a high base compared with the same period last year; Jizhi syrup continues to grow well under the catalysis of terminal demand; Tongtian oral liquid, sinusitis oral liquid and other traditional Chinese medicine varieties are expected to achieve good growth. On the whole, the company's industrial sector is under short-term pressure under the influence of the slowdown in the growth of core products, and other varieties of traditional Chinese medicine are expected to achieve steady growth.

Other sectors of ②: the revenue of its traditional Chinese medicine business was 1.911 billion yuan, down 9.21% from the same period last year, the gross profit margin was 8.62%, down 0.25% from the same period last year, and the commercial sector continued to be under pressure; the income from Chinese medicine resources reached 246 million yuan, down 21.47% from the same period last year, and the gross profit margin was 6.81%, an increase of 0.61% over the same period last year. The income of the Great Health sector reached 126 million yuan, an increase of 60.15% over the same period last year, with a gross profit margin of 4.67%, an increase of 0.35% over the same period last year.

Looking forward to the whole year: continue to promote digital transformation, actively open up the second growth curve in 2024, the company will continue to promote digital transformation, use data to enable production, operation and organizational change, and build a modern pharmaceutical industry cluster. At the same time, we will develop the industrialization of traditional Chinese medicine resources and actively open up the second growth curve:

1) Pharmaceutical industry: the company will strengthen category development and channel construction, make every effort to do a good job in strategic sales, and create a multi-variety, omni-channel and digital integrated marketing platform. In terms of varieties, the company will do a good job in the planning and supplement of new products, and the series of patchouli and urgent branches will achieve full-category marketing. It is expected that in the future, driven by the improvement of permeability and the new positioning of "removing dampness" in areas outside Sichuan and Chongqing, the varieties still have room for growth. on the basis of the company's focus on key markets and the integration of online and offline sales, it is expected to maintain good growth. With the two main products as the center, we will jointly promote the steady growth trend of the industrial sector.

2) Pharmaceutical business: the company will promote integration and coordination in depth, and really improve the overall profit level; in the distribution sector, the company will continue to promote the construction of the supply chain, with the goal of adding at least 50 key suppliers to first-level distribution and opening up accounts. At the same time, we will vigorously develop medical terminals, actively develop grade hospitals, transform from collection and distribution to full-category and full-industry, and seek new growth points. In the retail sector, the company plans to vigorously develop direct franchise pharmacies, adding no less than 100 new target direct franchise pharmacies, and joining pharmacy operation with direct policy and management system norms; at the same time, focus on building five characteristic Chinese medicine stores to increase sales of Taiji brand traditional Chinese medicine slices; it is expected to jointly promote the company's commercial sector to restore healthy growth.

3) traditional Chinese medicine resources: the company will continue to deeply cultivate Chinese medicine resources, continue to expand the scale of planting base, plan to achieve a standardized planting area of 250000 mu, and start the construction of 14 varieties of Chinese medicine GAP base at the same time, so as to form a unique Taiji characteristic management of traditional Chinese medicine and formula slices. At the same time, the company will accelerate the industrialization of Cordyceps sinensis, promote the construction of Cordyceps provenance base and processing base, promote the flow of production standards, digital management and the formulation of local standards for the preparation and tending of Cordyceps sinensis in Sichuan and Chongqing, it is expected to jointly promote the company's traditional Chinese medicine resources business to maintain a rapid growth trend.

On the whole, it is expected that the 24-year industrial sector of the company will strengthen category development and channel construction, the profitability of the commercial sector is expected to be further improved, and the superimposed company will develop the industrialization of traditional Chinese medicine resources and actively open up the second growth curve. Optimistic about the company's long-term growth space.

Short-term pressure on gross profit margin and continuous optimization of cost structure

2024 年Q1，公司综合毛利率为46.47%，同比减少4.53pp，推测主要受到口径调节的影响；销售费用率达到33.08%，同比减少4.40pp，管理费用率达到4.00%，同比减少0.20 pp，费用结持续优化，控费效果理想；研发费用率达到1.33%，同比增加0.47pp，主要由于公司加大研发投入所致。经营活动产生的现金流量净额-1.67亿元，预计主要受到年初账期影响、经营活动现金流入同比减少所致。其余财务指标基本正常。

盈利预测及投资评级

过去两年，公司在业绩上的高增长及管理上的持续改善，符合我们2022 年初对公司“困境反转，成长可期”的判断；我们认为，公司当前估值已经充分反映pokerlife了经营的短期波动，而且短期经营波动并不会改变我们对于公司经营的长期判断。我们预计公司2024